ACTV - Several New Positions; Still Cautious
2024-02-09 07:06:26 ET
Summary
- The US economy showed signs of deceleration in the manufacturing sector, but signs of life in industrial production and retail sales.
- The services economy is showing signs of running out of steam, with intense deceleration in employment in the US ISM Services Index.
- Consumer spending, employment, and profit margins are all adjusting to new economic dynamics.
January 24, 2024
"It's gonna take time
A whole lot of precious time
It's gonna take patience and time, mmm."
- George Harrison
Got My Mind Set on You
Risk assets had a good quarter and a good year following a very difficult 2022. On the economic front, the consumer remained resilient, but underlying economic trends remained poor. More on that below, but first, a review of Q4 performance for "primary" assets. [1]
Recall that in the third quarter, commodities were the lone primary asset class with a positive return. Well, it was the exact reverse in the fourth quarter. Commodities were down, but every other primary asset class was up. US equities were +11.6% during the three-month period. Global equities closely followed, up +11.2%. Safe-haven assets were up too. Long-dated US Treasury bonds were up +12.9% and gold was up +11.5%. Commodities, the outlier, were down -10.9%....
Several New Positions; Still Cautious