IND - SPY: Long-Term Outlook Remains Unchanged

• The history of supercycles in innovation, geopolitics, and markets points to low yields and low inflation over the coming decade.
• Extreme tech outperformance and energy underperformance have been typically followed by relative energy outperformance, but depressed S&P 500 returns over the subsequent decade.
• High earnings growth in periods of secular low yields and inflation have typically been followed by earnings shocks and secular bear markets in stocks.
• The decline in metals momentum suggests an earnings shock may be in the offing.
• We need more innovative techniques for forecasting extreme outcomes in markets.

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