ACTV - The Best Of Times The Worst Of Times

2024-07-02 14:10:00 ET

Summary

• Of the eleven sectors, all but one (Energy) have averaged gains in the month following the close on July 2nd.
• Taking a longer-term time frame, the three-month period following the close on July 2nd has been one of the weakest times of year for equities.
• For the S&P 500 and all ten sectors, there are some pretty wide divergences, most notably for Materials, Industrials, and Consumer Staples where the swings range from a median gain of at least 1% to a median decline of at least 1%.

Charles Dickens didn’t have the stock market in mind when he wrote A Tale of Two Cities , but depending on your time horizon, we’re entering what could be classified as one of the best of times (next month) and one of the worst of times (next three months) of the year for equities. Starting with the shorter-term window, based on the last ten years of data, the period from the close on 7/2 out over the next month has historically been a positive time of year. Of the eleven sectors, all but one (Energy) have averaged gains in the month following the close on July 2nd. Taking a longer-term time frame, the three-month period following the close on July 2nd has been one of the weakest times of year for equities!...

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