TSLA - The Chinese EV Appetite Is To Benefit Both Domestic and Foreign Players
On Monday, Nio (NYSE: NIO), known as the Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) of China delivered its fourth quarter earnings. Although the results were good, they were weaker than expected and for a stock that’s been as strong, the quarter had to be robust. But NIO The stock took a tumble after earnings, as the automaker warned that the global chip shortage will slow production. While revenue scorched higher by 133%, it slightly missed consensus expectations, as did the bottom-line results, with the company reporting a wider loss than analysts had expected.
Q4
Revenue of $1.02 billion resulted in a per-share loss of 14 cents. Gross margin improved to 17.2% in the quarter, from negative 8.9% a year ago and previous quarter’s 12.9%. Vehicle margin improved 0 17.2% from negative 6% a year ago and Q3’s 14.5%. Cash and cash equivalents climbed to $6.5 billion at the end of the quarter versus the $3.3 billion in the prior quarter. Nio had already disclosed that Q4 2020 deliveries jumped 111% to 17,353 vehicles. As most businesses in China closed for a week during the Lunar New Year holiday, sales dropped to 5,578 vehicles in February from 7,225 vehicles in January but both months were up by triple digits compared to 2019 figures. In February, the ES6 sales led with 2,216 deliveries, followed by 2,035 for the EC6 and 1,327 for the ES8.
Outlook
Nio sees Q1 deliveries in the range between 20,000 and 20,500 vehicles, up 421%-434% from a year ago and up 15% to 18% from fourth quarter. Revenue is expected in the range between $1.13 billion to $1.16 billion, up about 438% to 451% from a year ago and up 11% to 14% from Q4. CEO William Li revealed production capacity had climbed from 7,500 to 10,000 vehicles a month in February, but also warned a shortage in chips and batteries is imposing a slowdown back to 7,500 a month in the second quarter.
Rivals
The results are impacting Tesla too, which was down about 2.5% on the news. Among other EV stocks, Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) fell 8.2% Tuesday whereas last week it reported a surprise profit. Xpeng Motors (NYSE: XPEV), which reports on March 8 th , dropped 11.3%. Tesla slipped 4.45% on Tuesday. Subsidy cuts and rising competition from tech and legacy auto giants in China are weighing on EV players. Tesla was forced to make its made-in-China Model Y more affordable to compete with Nio’s new EC6 electric crossover. Two versions of the much-cheaper Volkswagen (OTC: VWAGY) ID.4 will start getting delivered in China by the end of March. Meanwhile, Nio in January announced the ET7 electric sedan which will compete with Tesla Model 3 due next year.
But, new entrants are coming and there also many less obvious players which can fuel them up for success. One of them is Worksport Ltd (OTC: WKSP), an innovative manufacturer of tonneau covers for pickups. With its TerraVis solar tonneau cover system and TerraVis COR mobile energy storage system, it aims to become a Tier 1 OEM manufacturer of solar-panel tonneaus for electric vehicle maker as it already partnered to configure its groundbreaking technology for two upcoming pickups. The Canadian-based company announced on Wednesday that following the success of its oversubscribed Regulation-A public offering, the company has received over $2.3 million from investors who have exercised their warrants. This additional influx of capital will support Worksport’s strategic North American and Chinese manufacturing investments as well as in the development of its revolutionary Terra Vis system.
Nio’s positioning
Edison Yu with Deutsche Bank highlighted Nio’s “impressive” first-quarter guidance which according to him, outline “a very real path to more than 100,000 deliveries this year. The analysts finds that the outlook reflects growing awareness and appreciation of its aspirational brand and ecosystem, putting the company on track to be a market leader in the China premium segment. Dan Ives at Wedbush finds Nio’s “robust” fourth-quarter results describe a transformational EV opportunity playing out in China with all EV players having “massive tailwinds into 2021 as the golden age of EVs takes hold. All the above companies are well-positioned to lead the way forward in this Chinese market opportunity as analysts expect Chinese EV market is set to go from 4.5% penetration to 10% in the next two years based. The jaw-dropping consumer appetite for EVs can benefit well positioned domestic vendors as well as foreign players.
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