ACTV - The June CPI Report Will Carry A Big Message On Inflation's Path

2024-07-09 13:36:57 ET

Summary

• June inflation is expected to see a modest uptick from May, with headline CPI increasing by 0.1% m/m and core CPI by 0.2% m/m.
• Expectations for CPI swaps pricing in a 0.0% m/m change in headline CPI for June and a 3.1% y/y increase.
• Auto insurance rates plunged in May, impacting overall CPI, while shipping rates continue to rise, posing a threat to goods inflation.

The June CPI report is expected to show a very modest uptick from May's weaker-than-expected reading. Analysts forecast for headline CPI in June are expected to show a month-over-month increase of just 0.1%, up by 0.0%, while rising by 3.1% y/y, down from 3.3%. Meanwhile, core CPI is expected to increase by 0.2%, in line with May, while rising by 3.4% y/y, also in line with May....

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