- We’ve noted over the past two months that the pace of US economic activity is set to slow markedly during the first half of this year.
- Note that a sign of the downward pressure on economic activity resulting from high inflation is the decline in ‘real’ wages.
- At this stage the leading recession indicators we follow do NOT point to a recession beginning within the next six months (two quarters of negative GDP growth can occur in the absence of a recession), but there’s now a high probability that a boom-to-bust transition will begin during the first half of this year.
For further details see:
The Shift From Boom To Bust May Have Begun