ACTV - The Turn Is Coming
2024-04-27 06:25:00 ET
Summary
- The 10yr minus 3mo Treasury rate (Yield Curve) is moving higher at a rapid pace as investors adjust their inflation thinking to being more persistent in the 3-4% range.
- 88% of portfolio managers in the Bank of America Fund Managers Survey last week believed lower rates were ahead.
- I believe we are seeing a long-awaited turn away from the single focus of high tech as the only option for investors.
The 10yr minus 3mo Treasury rate, called the Yield Curve, is moving higher at a rapid pace as investors adjust their inflation thinking to being more persistent in the 3-4% range. At the moment, T-Bills priced at 5.25% remained roughly stable, giving a Real rate of return of close to 2%. I expect this to hold for a while. The bigger story has been expectations for a significant rate decline on a weakening economy....
The Turn Is Coming