ULTA - Turtle Creek Q1 2025 Manager Commentary
2025-07-18 05:00:00 ET
The first quarter of 2025 started off positively enough. The re-election of President Trump was met with investor optimism, driven by expectations of a more favourable regulatory environment, lower taxes, increased mergers and acquisitions activity and the unleashing of 'animal spirits'. This surge in confidence led to strong market performance and even stronger price performance by our flagship fund. This euphoria was quickly replaced by growing fears from the chaotic tariff policy of the Trump administration – fear of not only the impact on businesses themselves but also of the impact on a consumer already strained by inflation. Markets began to decline and our portfolio was not immune. The negativity culminated in early April when President Trump announced the imposition of substantial tariffs against all of its trading partners on what was characterized as Liberation Day. The havoc that was unleashed on the bond and equity markets was significant and caused stocks to enter a bear market. This has been followed by a number of temporary tariff reprieves but the uncertainty continues as the market tries to discern the endgame. Suffice to say that traded price volatility has been extreme. We will have more to say on our portfolio's tariff exposure later in this commentary....
Turtle Creek Q1 2025 Manager Commentary