ACTV - U.S.-China Trade Falls To Lowest Level Since Coronavirus Pandemic

2023-04-11 09:39:00 ET

Summary

• The value of goods the U.S. imports from China fell when measured year-over-year for the fifth consecutive month in February 2023.
• While February 2023's level is the lowest on record since the pandemic, there is a unique contributing factor that may account for a portion that outcome.
• A labor union action that shut the west coast's top container port on 7 April 2023 may negatively influence the month's import figures should the action spread to other facilities or be repeated.

The value of goods the U.S. imports from China fell when measured year-over-year for the fifth consecutive month in February 2023. That negative trend was sufficient to pull the combined value of goods traded between the two countries to its lowest point since the coronavirus pandemic.

You can see that development in the following chart that shows this monthly data series as the purple line. The chart also shows the trailing twelve-month average of trade between the two countries has significantly deviated from the post-pandemic counterfactual based on the recovery of trade between the U.S. and China after the 2008-09's Great Recession. That deviation continues a trend that began after September 2022.

While February 2023's level is the lowest on record since the pandemic, there is a unique contributing factor that may account for a portion that outcome. China's annual week-long Spring Festival holiday took place from 21 through 27 January 2023, during which China's port facilities process very few cargo ships. Given an average transit time of about three weeks to reach U.S. west coast ports, the absence of goods shipped from China to the U.S. because of the holiday would be expected to show up in February's trade data.

That's the most positive spin we can put on February 2023's trade data. To the extent that factor contributed to February 2023's import total, we should see a relative improvement when March 2023's data becomes available on 4 May 2023.

Looking forward to April 2023's data, a labor union action that shut the west coast's top container port on 7 April 2023 may negatively influence the month's import figures should the action spread to other facilities or be repeated.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. Trade in Goods with China . Last updated: 5 April 2023.

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