QVMM - U.S. Election: Near-Term Turbulence Long-Term Questions
2024-07-17 06:15:00 ET
Summary
- A close election could see increased U.S. equity volatility followed by a relief rally while resulting policy impacts could take time to play out and may be affected by fiscal constraints.
- Biden and Trump are on common ground when it comes to China, with the current president recently initiating new tariffs on certain goods and Trump on record as favoring high levies on electric vehicles.
- While investors should expect some near-term turbulence leading up to the election, we believe that economic fundamentals ultimately drive market performance.
By Timothy F. Creedon, CFA & Raheel Siddiqui
A close election could see increased U.S. equity volatility followed by a relief rally while resulting policy impacts could take time to play out and may be affected by fiscal constraints.
As the U.S. presidential election approaches, we see a sharply divided nation that is close to evenly split between the current and former presidents, with very different views for the future reflected in policies on taxes, energy, spending, global engagement and more. Polls have been volatile, as is often the case during close elections, and it is possible the election could remain contested until its closing days, with results coming down to a handful of swing states....
U.S. Election: Near-Term Turbulence, Long-Term Questions