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USAI - U.S. Shale Growth In 2020 Will Disappoint Consensus Estimates
American Energy Independence
Welcome to the disappointment edition of Oil Markets Daily!
There are increasing signs of disappointing US shale growth projections for 2020. IEA and OPEC currently have +1.3 and +1.5 mb/d y-o-y (total liquids) for the US. IEA, in particular, has +0.9 mb/d for crude production growth y-o-y. But the latest well completion data, along with the frac spread count, indicate well completion activity in 2020 will likely be 10-15% lower than 2019.
Source: EIA, HFI Research
Source: EIA, HFI Research Estimate
In the first chart above, you can clearly see the relationship in WTI price