Welcome to the disappointment edition of Oil Markets Daily!
There are increasing signs of disappointing US shale growth projections for 2020. IEA and OPEC currently have +1.3 and +1.5 mb/d y-o-y (total liquids) for the US. IEA, in particular, has +0.9 mb/d for crude production growth y-o-y. But the latest well completion data, along with the frac spread count, indicate well completion activity in 2020 will likely be 10-15% lower than 2019.
Source: EIA, HFI Research
Source: EIA, HFI Research Estimate
In the first chart above, you can clearly see the relationship in WTI price