CHIX - Ukraine And Current Market Analysis

• With the Russian central bank sanctioned, I think it will be very difficult to conduct ruble FX intervention in size in order to defend the RUB currency.
• In 2014, there were a mix of Russian sanctions, ECB/Fed rate policy divergence, ramping of US shale production, and a strong dollar environment.
• This all contributed to a large decline in oil prices. Given these signs are all occurring now, I will not rule out the possibility.
• ECB tightening here would be a repeat mistake in my opinion and risks, stagflation in Europe or Japanification and loss of confidence. The Fed/ECB divergence theme is very much intact.
• I hold long oil tanker positions due to potential for mass restocking of oil, additional ton-mile demand because of routing implications of the Russia/Ukraine crisis and Iran's need for compliant tankers.

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