ACTV - Weekly Indicators: More Weakness In Short-Term Indicators
2024-02-17 01:36:50 ET
Summary
- Long leading indicators are showing signs of improvement, particularly in interest rates and credit spreads.
- Housing indicators are mixed, with mortgage rates and applications showing some improvement, but real estate loans declining.
- Short leading indicators are more mixed, with some positive signs in economic indicators and stock prices, but concerns in employment metrics and tax withholding.
Purpose
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to "mark your beliefs to market." In general, I go in order of long leading indicators, then short leading indicators, then coincident indicators.
A note on methodology
Data is presented in a "just the facts, ma'am" format with a minimum of commentary so that bias is minimized.
Where relevant, I include 12-month highs and lows in the data in parentheses to the right. All data taken from St. Louis FRED unless otherwise linked....
Weekly Indicators: More Weakness In Short-Term Indicators