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I expect more businesses to close in the coming weeks and months, and anticipate that the upcoming US jobs reports will reflect very anemic job growth.
If infections in Western developed countries rise enough, that could be very damaging to their economies, and in a worst-case scenario result in a double-dip recession.
The Chinese economy has been performing well given its ability to control the virus, and we expect it to lead the economic recovery in 2021 given this strength.