KEJI - Why The Shipping Backlog Won't Stop Retail Sales

• The port bottlenecks and supply shortages have caused goods shortages. Though, for proof that the supply chain disruption is not damaging the economy much, look no further than Friday’s report that retail sales rose 0.7% in September - a huge positive surprise, since economists were expecting a 0.2% decline.
• As a result of port bottlenecks and supply shortages, however, the IMF cut its global 2021 GDP forecast to 5.9% last Tuesday, down from 6% in its previous estimate. For 2022, the IMF is forecasting 4.9% global GDP growth.
• Order backlogs for major economies - like China, Germany, and the U.S. - remain very high, complicated by the Taiwan semiconductor chip shortage.

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