BILS News and Press, SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 3-12 Month T-Bill From 07/27/23

2023-07-27 14:35:00 ET Summary In a unanimous decision, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised rates by 25 basis points. Fed Chair Jay Powell was emphatic that monetary policy is now restrictive and that the Fed is nearing the end of tightening. We feel that equity markets have a...

2023-07-25 05:30:00 ET Summary The predictive power of the yield curve is a widely accepted causal narrative, but history shows that the causal correlation between long and short rates is actually quite weak. While long and short rates tend to move in the same direction, they do s...

2023-07-24 23:27:00 ET Summary After dropping over 2% last week, the US Dollar rebounded some to take it back above its Bollinger band. As for the 10-year Treasury yield, its uptrend remains on track, both in the short and intermediate term, this following last week’s close...

2023-07-19 04:54:00 ET Summary The yield curve is the difference between the current 10-year T-Note yield and the 2-Year T-Note yield. The Fed Funds Rate is the rate the Fed sets on overnight money to establish the demand for money necessary to get inflation to its 2% target. ...

2023-07-18 21:43:00 ET Summary The market discount sees a Mexican central bank rate cut from November. We agree, and we in fact can see rates being cut faster than the market discounts thereafter. This can be gleaned from the appreciation in the peso and falls in market rates....

2023-07-17 07:35:00 ET Summary Is the Fed responsible for the drop in the inflation rate? If not, what does that imply about future policy and inflation? The 10-year/3-month Treasury spread has been inverted since last year, and that has been a reliable predictor of recession in t...

2023-07-17 02:32:54 ET Summary An inverted yield curve provides investors with opportunities at the short end of the yield curve. Treasury bonds are considered the safest investment due to the low likelihood of a U.S. government default and are backed by the U.S. Treasury Departme...

2023-07-12 21:12:00 ET Summary The yield curve spread that most accurately forecasts recessions is that between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Fed economists and policymakers are also predominantly Keynesian, so they believe in the Phillips Cur...

2023-07-12 03:30:00 ET Summary The high-yield sector offers attractive absolute and relative return prospects due to resilient corporate fundamentals. Consumers and labor market conditions remain on solid footing. Spreads have mostly widened from the end of 2022 through the en...

2023-07-04 01:50:00 ET Summary The yield curve, as measured by the 2-year note and 10-year note (Treasury yields) have gotten more inverted of late, registering at -106 basis points (bps) at last count. Even at that, many bond experts are saying that we are still in “lucky&...