BILS News and Press, SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 3-12 Month T-Bill From 04/06/22

If USTs are upside down, we shouldn’t expect to find outright contradictions elsewhere in places like Japan or Germany. Yields in Germany too have gone vertical over the past few months. Unsurprisingly, the higher Treasuries go, the more they tug on bunds (10s) and bobls (5s) a...

The US 10yr shot back above 2.5% as the 2/5yr re-steepened yesterday. This is not a fluke. Remember the 2/5yr has not inverted; it will eventually. But for now, its resistance is testimony to this being a rising rates environment. Rising rates and a steeper 2/5yr (even if temporar...

Recession forecasts are topical lately, driven by the recent inversion of the Treasury yield curve for 2- and 10-year rates. US nonfarm payrolls rose 431,000 in March, extending a run of healthy gains that suggests the economy’s forward momentum remains strong. Economic mom...

Inverted yield curves - especially those driven by rapid shifts in short-term interest rates - tend to be interpreted as evidence of a risk that the Fed is about to hike the economy into recession. The inverted yield curve today is the natural end-result of a long period during which ...

The 10/2 spread is one point on the Treasury yield curve which is positively sloped from 1 month to 3 years, negatively sloped from 3 years to 10 years, and positively sloped again from 10 out to 30 years. The dollar is still near the top of its long-term range and I don’t see ...

Late in any economic cycle, investors will turn their attention to the U.S. Treasury yield curve, a bond-market gauge viewed as a harbinger of the economic outlook. The curve has a track record for foreshadowing recessions when it inverts, meaning when shorter-dated yields move above ...

As the US Treasury curve approaches the point of inversion—where shorter-term yields are higher than longer-term ones—investors are taking notice. Historically, an inverted yield curve has portended a recession and weak financial markets. Given much higher yields and...

Markets react to peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Does an inverted yield curve mean recession risks are rising? China PMI surveys point to contraction in manufacturing and services sectors. For further details see: The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Briefly Inverts. Sh...

It's that time again, where the global financial markets community swoons over the latest US jobs report. It's expected to be strong. But often the market can ignore the number and instead use it as an excuse to latch on to a preferred trend. In that respect, it will be key to see...

So the US curve has inverted, or at least in parts. We'll be a bit picky and assert that a 2/5yr inversion is the better predictor of recession; it has not inverted yet. The 2/5yr segment has not inverted just yet (but it will). The 5/10yr segment has inverted, partly as the 10yr is d...