CAPD News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP ETN REDEEM BARCLAYS BANK PLC IPATH SHILLER CAPE ETN From 04/23/22

We believe the conflict in Ukraine may turn out to be less critical for equity markets than the upcoming turn we anticipate in the economic growth cycle. In the near term, we expect the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) to continue to recover from its March trough. We expect the dis...

The nature of the economic cycle, originally due to the COVID pandemic, has been amplified. The ongoing lockdowns and the military conflict in Europe have prompted us to revise our inflation projections further. The dynamic shifting of corporate winners and losers is a constant an...

Value stocks may benefit in environments marked by higher inflation, higher rates, and a continued economic reopening. Quality stocks are a natural ballast to value. Investing in companies with stronger pricing power and healthy balance sheets may be prudent. Minimum Volatility ca...

The valuation spread tends to be very wide during a crisis and/or recessions, followed by narrowing of the spread. The extreme widening of the valuation spread during market dislocations that occur during or near the start of value cycles suggests that fear may act as a catalyst and p...

Does the yield curve inversion cause a recession or does it just provide a signal? Is the inversion only about expected future monetary policy? Do other factors also influence the shape of the curve, and if so, can we disentangle the various factors? There is a lot that we don’...

Inflation expectations have kept the Federal Reserve center stage as they commenced their interest rate rising cycle in March. The war in Ukraine and Omicron’s spread in China impacted inflation and supply chains differently, but both delay supply chain normalization. Regar...

Stock markets fell in the first quarter as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine destabilized the growth outlook, amplified concerns about rising interest rates and unleashed geopolitical risks. While the conflict has created many uncertainties, we believe the impact of persistent infla...

Large-cap value stocks have characteristics that could make them compelling in the current environment and beyond. Inflation moved higher in the wake of the pandemic as societies reopened and consumers accelerated their spending, supported by government payouts and massive central ban...

Updating style-box returns as of 3/31/22, using the iShares growth and value ETFs, “value” continues to outperform growth this calendar year. Near the S&P 500 lows of early March and just prior to the start of the nice March rally, S&P 500 growth was down 12%, wh...

Follow the Money is a series of brief, information-rich posts that I will publish periodically but not on a fixed schedule. After rallying for 9 of the last 11 days, the S&P 500 went from down -13% to down just -3.4%. Growth has been hit hard by the slide in tech stocks this y...