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2023-04-11 21:48:16 ET Summary We are in the early stages of a new market cycle characterized by higher volatility, inflation and interest rates and creating conditions where value stocks thrive. New market cycles are characterized by future leaders beginning extremely cheap, and ...
Summary Based on our proprietary research in value investing, we find that deeper-valued stocks tend to outperform when the valuation spread, meaning the difference between cheap and expensive stocks, peaks from a very wide level. Valuation spreads narrowing and then starting to w...
Summary Skewness in asset returns is a perplexing phenomenon and evokes different behavior from investors. Our theory is that skewness tends to move based on investor preferences. Investors in growth stocks may be pursuing lottery-like payouts, especially when such stocks are ...
Summary YTD, the S&P 500 is now down 24% while bonds have their own double-digit losses. Like stock valuations, currency valuations aren’t great timing tools but over a 3-year period after becoming undervalued, the outperformance is strong. Consumer defensive stocks...
Summary As the Fed walks the line between curbing inflation and averting recession, anxious investors are seeking to balance the two risks. The question now is how fast can inflation fall and where does it come to rest? We don’t see a quick retrenchment or a return to the o...
Summary With inflation at the highest level in decades and volatility continuing to surge, equity investors are questioning their next moves. At the beginning of the year, financial conditions were very loose by any means historically, and we've very rapidly moved from loose finan...
Summary The main economic data release for the trading week is the US inflation report. The UK economy is in a precarious position and facing a recession. Chinese President Xi is expected to meet with Russian President Putin at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in U...
Summary The strategic case holds that factors may help from both a return perspective and as a source of diversification. The recent performance turn will likely convince more investors that subpar factor performance in recent years was cyclical, not structural. Higher-quality...
Summary The value rotation story has been hard to miss - it’s a trend that’s been underway since late 2020 and has since continued to gather steam. A theme often heard in the narrative is that value had been floundering relative to growth for a long stretch leading u...
Historically, the best time to overweight value stocks has been in the early stages of a recovery, when economic growth is accelerating, and value tends to be cheap. Aside from energy, few sectors or styles have produced positive returns in 2022, but until recently value consistently ...