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Last week stocks shuddered as ten year yields dipped below treasury bills, reminding investors that yield curve inversions eerily precede recessions. A St. Louis Fed model using the yield curve gives a 30% probability of a recession within a year, up from 24% in December. Nonetheless, the S&...

Credit curves Business cycles are driven by credit expansion then credit contraction. Therefore it makes sense to be able to assess how credit spreads are able to indicate an impending recession. Increase in financing costs is what typically leads the virtuous cycle of credit to tip over int...

By Eric Winograd Last week's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) surprised even those who expected a dovish outcome. As the Fed wrangles with its policy framework, one takeaway is clear: don't expect rate hikes this year - and possibly next. As recently as six months ago,...

By Frank Shostak Currently, we can observe a general slowdown in the annual growth rate in price inflation across major countries around the world. For instance, the yearly growth rate of the US consumer price index ((CPI)) fell to 1.5% in February from 1.6% in January and 2.2% in February...

By Robert Savage Perhaps the most important lesson to learn as a child is how to lose. Failure and the teachable moments from it are essential to progress. Winning similarly requires grace and some sense of duty back to the game and its players. Have markets and politicians learned these l...

By Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. To no one's surprise, the FOMC left its policy rate unchanged. This decision was widely telegraphed in advance. What was a surprise to many - but should not have been - was the markdown in prospective rate changes to zero in 2019 and only one in 2020. Pundits puz...

With so much news hitting the wires regarding the Treasury Inversion level and the "potential pending recession," we wanted to shed a little insight into this phenomenon and what we believe the most likely outcome to be going forward. Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd. , believe the T...

Of many dubious claims that recent Federal Reserve Board nominee Stephen Moore made in a Wall Street Journal op-ed he published a couple weeks ago, perhaps the most startling was his claim that "to break the crippling inflation of the 1970s," former Fed chair Paul Volcker linked Fed monetary...

Posted by Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist on March 25, 2019, in Market & Economic Weekly Market Compass: Also, will the third time be a charm for Theresa May's Brexit plan? Monetary policy disruption was on full display last week: The Federal Reserve (Fed)...

With the German 10-year bunds closing last week with a yield of negative 0.03%, talk of yield curve inversion and a global recession is rampant as some short-term interest rates in the U.S. are now drifting above the 10-year Treasury yield. Still, the classic 2-10 spread, or t...