DTUL News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP REDEEM 13/08/2020 USD 50 - Ser A 06740L469 From 03/27/19

By Kevin Flanagan Last week, the big news was that the U.S. Treasury (UST) 3-month/10-year yield curve became inverted for the first time since 2007. It is certainly a noteworthy development in bond-land. As of this writing, the closely watched UST 2-year/10-year spread is still on the pos...

Is a recession in the U.S. around the bend? Few economists are predicting one. On the other hand, longer-term Treasury bond yields continue to slide below shorter-term maturities. Bond investors are gobbling up long-term government debt because they believe that the economy will slow dramat...

The $9.9B iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ( TLT +0.6% ) is heading for its worst month of outflows on record as investors pile into shorter-duration ETFS amid a continuing downward slope in benchmark yields. More news on: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, iShares 1-3 Year Treasury B...

Last week stocks shuddered as ten year yields dipped below treasury bills, reminding investors that yield curve inversions eerily precede recessions. A St. Louis Fed model using the yield curve gives a 30% probability of a recession within a year, up from 24% in December. Nonetheless, the S&...

Credit curves Business cycles are driven by credit expansion then credit contraction. Therefore it makes sense to be able to assess how credit spreads are able to indicate an impending recession. Increase in financing costs is what typically leads the virtuous cycle of credit to tip over int...

By Eric Winograd Last week's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) surprised even those who expected a dovish outcome. As the Fed wrangles with its policy framework, one takeaway is clear: don't expect rate hikes this year - and possibly next. As recently as six months ago,...

By Frank Shostak Currently, we can observe a general slowdown in the annual growth rate in price inflation across major countries around the world. For instance, the yearly growth rate of the US consumer price index ((CPI)) fell to 1.5% in February from 1.6% in January and 2.2% in February...

By Robert Savage Perhaps the most important lesson to learn as a child is how to lose. Failure and the teachable moments from it are essential to progress. Winning similarly requires grace and some sense of duty back to the game and its players. Have markets and politicians learned these l...

By Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. To no one's surprise, the FOMC left its policy rate unchanged. This decision was widely telegraphed in advance. What was a surprise to many - but should not have been - was the markdown in prospective rate changes to zero in 2019 and only one in 2020. Pundits puz...

Of many dubious claims that recent Federal Reserve Board nominee Stephen Moore made in a Wall Street Journal op-ed he published a couple weeks ago, perhaps the most startling was his claim that "to break the crippling inflation of the 1970s," former Fed chair Paul Volcker linked Fed monetary...