DTUS News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP REDEEM 13/08/2020 USD 50 - Ser A 06740L519 From 06/23/19

This expansion has run for 120 months from the 2009 trough, a tie for the longest expansion with 1991 – 2001 (see the NBER’s data since 1854 . The Fed’s GDPNow algorithm estimates Q2 GDP at a still-healthy 2.0% SAAR. All expansions end in recessions. When will that happ...

If you have nothing left, it can sound like a winning argument, but you have to really try hard enough. In October 2015, with another false dawn dawning on the public, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke wrote and op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal . As had become his habit...

The 10-year Treasury rate has fallen below 2.0% for the first time since November 2016, blowing through the bearish reasons to "short" bonds at the last "blow-off" top. As I have outlined in many of my past research notes, the driving factors behind US Treasury rates are credit risk, ...

In order for rate cuts to be insurance for a boom to continue, there first has to be a boom able to be continued. The FOMC meeting yesterday didn't directly kill the idea, but that's actually what's coming up in the latest projections. This is why there's been so much attention focused on in...

A version of this piece originally appeared in the Financial Times on 19th June, 2019. Central banks around the world are pivoting toward easier monetary policy. In some countries, this means rates are falling below previous record lows, and in the U.S., the Federal Reserve has pause...

Wednesday's FOMC statement and Fed Chair Powell's press conference may have satisfied those looking for US rate cuts later in 2019. However, we see in both the statement and the press conference an uncharacteristic reluctance to react pre-emptively. This is despite a lowering of the central pr...

By James Knightley The Fed has opened the door to rate cuts, but it may not be as aggressive as the market expects. For now, we're sticking to our recently revised forecast for rate cuts in September and December, but if the data deteriorates and President Trump and President Xi's mee...

By Collin Martin The Federal Open Market Committee ((FOMC)) - the Federal Reserve's policymaking arm - held its target range steady on Wednesday, maintaining the 2.25% to 2.5% target range for the Federal Funds rate. This was widely expected by the markets. The next move by the Fed is li...

QE trade "animal spirits" were back with a vengeance on Thursday, following yet another dovish surprise from the Fed. Let me just say, right off the bat, that there is no "Cliffs Notes" version of this. I'm going to hit the high points for readers on this platform, but it isn't possible to ...

Earlier this year, I penned a research note detailing a data-driven approach to measuring recession risk. You can read that note from February by clicking here . In that note, which you should read prior to this note if you have not done so, I outline the official definition of a recessi...