EWMC News and Press, Invesco S&P MidCap 400 Equal Weight From 10/14/22

Summary The October Preliminary Report came in at 59.8, up 1.2 (2.0%) from the September Final. Consumer sentiment is essentially unchanged at 1.2 index points above September, in spite of a 23% improvement in current buying conditions for durables owing to an easing in supply con...

Summary The September inflation report was hotter than expected. Yet the stock market staged a historic intraday reversal with very bullish precedents. That could be a sign that markets are starting to look forward to better days ahead. Yesterday saw a stunning rever...

Summary Monetary policy is now tight relative to recent decades. The ultimate impact of this is uncertain due to the amount of global debt. Fiscal policy is likely to be at loggerheads with monetary policy as governments try to protect the voter base from hardship. While marke...

Summary The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard is a group of 12 variables that have historically foreshadowed an upcoming recession. The Fed does not want to repeat the mistakes of not only the soft-landing scenario of 1966, but also the start-stop dynamic that was endured durin...

Summary The core CPI in September came in stronger than consensus expectations across consumer spending categories that tend to be “stickier,” including shelter and healthcare. The primary driver of inflation again in September was shelter. Goods price inflation ...

Summary Every movement of the stock market has been predicated on what the Fed had to say. The most important chart is the high yield credit spread. When credit markets freeze, policy makers bend. For the past six weeks every movement of the stock market has been pre...

Summary AIER’s Everyday Price fell 0.4% in September following a 1.3% drop in August and 0.6% decline in July. The Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy, rose 0.4% for the month (not seasonally adjusted), while the 12-month change came in at 6.6%, the highest sinc...

Summary Last week’s jobless claims number went unrevised whereas the latest week’s data rose by 9K up to 228K. On a national level, claims are moving higher, but it is perhaps too early to say we are in a new trend. While 80% of states and territories saw claims ...

Summary CPI reading came in ahead of expectations. Core CPI hit a new cycle high, which is pretty devastating for the "transitory" narrative. The Fed will have to continue to hike rates, putting pressure on broad equity markets, and especially on long-duration assets such as t...

Summary We summarize key data and provide in-depth analysis of the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). All Items and Core CPI inflation both grew at significantly higher rates than expected. This month’s CPI i...