EWMC News and Press, Invesco S&P MidCap 400 Equal Weight From 12/06/22

Summary Olga and Hugo review their predictions and explore what surprised them in 2022, focusing on GDP, interest rates, earnings growth, energy prices, and the dollar. Our forecast for nominal GDP incorporates expectations for both growth and inflation. We were on the right track by an...

Summary Yesterday's ISM Services Index for November rose unexpectedly, signaling a rebound in the rate of economic growth. That sent bond yields higher and stock prices lower, fueling fears the Fed will raise rates higher for longer. Yet the consensus ignored a similar survey from a...

Summary As Treasury yields have declined by a similar magnitude as to what they did last summer, stocks have rallied by a similar magnitude. The S&P 500 Volatility Index is a few ticks below its August low and close to its lows for the year, save for early January, when we had a bit...

Summary It was long anticipated the “non large-cap growth” asset class would eventually assert itself in terms of market leadership and revert to the mean. The sudden dollar weakness has driven good volume in some of the EM ETFs like EMXC and the Vanguard ETF like VE...

Summary The S&P 500 has been glued to 4,000 heading into this week's options expiration. That's likely to change next week when the option market resets. There could be a grab for puts ahead of the FOMC minutes. Stocks have come roaring back since that cooler-than-ex...

Summary In the quest for a bigger total addressable market competitive forces often get overlooked. Many of the supposed innovations that rapidly expand TAM are actually deleterious to their industries. If you can sell to everyone your competition is everyone and margins will ...

Summary There are really two things that are driving the view that a durable bottom has not been felt. And the first is that there were unrealistic expectations of a dovish [US Federal Reserve] Fed pivot. It’s going to be very difficult for the Fed to pivot when they have n...

Summary The resilience of the labor market means the U.S. is probably not in a true recession. Macroeconomic headwinds do, however, make a mild recession within the next 12 months more likely than not. The market volatility has been one of the contributing factors to investor ...

Summary The era of cheap money and low inflation is over. We see an opportune time for active equity managers to shine. We believe the recent correction is more than just another crank of the economic cycle. Not all earnings are created equal. We find the gap between companies...

Summary The Fed simply can't react as fast as the market does to changing realities - unfortunately, the Fed is usually "behind the curve." In any event, a 4.5% funds rate by year end is fully priced into the market and thus it should not be very impactful. What will change th...