FLGV News and Press, Franklin Liberty U.S. Treasury Bond From 04/21/23

2023-04-21 16:28:00 ET Summary Yesterday’s release of the Leading Economic Index from the Conference Board appears to settle the matter in favor of recession, but real-time analysis isn’t as clear-cut as this indicator suggests. The consultancy forecasts “econ...

2023-04-20 13:34:00 ET Summary The 60/40 stock/bond portfolio is the gold standard of portfolios. The math on the 40% slice is much cleaner. A bond aggregate is about a 5-year instrument in my All Duration model. In today’s environment, the aggregated components of a 60...

2023-04-20 03:00:00 ET Summary Some of the recent economic data is beginning to show increasing evidence that activity does appear to be slowing. With respect to the UST 3mo/10yr measure, the inversion has still been gathering steam. While the 3-Month T-bill has been tethered ...

2023-04-20 02:54:00 ET Summary Managers have become less bearish on credit spreads with ~40% expecting spreads to be range-bound in the next 12 months. Inflation and the prospect of recession are the major concerns among managers. At the time of the survey close on Feb. 15, pa...

2023-04-20 01:44:00 ET Summary The US Federal Reserve could soon deliver the last hike of the current cycle. While 10Y yields have seen their peak already, it will need the imminent prospect of rate cuts to re-steepen the curves. We think cuts will come before the year ends, b...

2023-04-18 05:00:00 ET Summary U.S. Bank loans and leases declined by $105 billion in the two weeks following the banking system disruption, suggesting some downward pressure ahead for the U.S. economy. A plus 1% spread between the 1-year and the 10-year is a sign of a meaningfull...

2023-04-12 00:08:00 ET Summary A negative US 10-year minus 3-month yield spread has signalled every incoming recession of the last 60 years. In the real world, global PC shipments were -29% year over year in the first quarter, and the average work week in March’s payroll re...

2023-04-11 02:36:00 ET Summary We’ve seen the worst of the yield curve inversions but I don’t think it tells you a whole lot about the future course of the stock market. Bonds rallied last week as interest rates fell with the 3-7 year Treasury index up a little over ...

2023-04-10 03:30:00 ET Summary The U.S. economy is slowing. A major tightening of real estate lending is now unfolding. The biggest lesson from Kuroda's rein: No individual (or small group) should ever have such absolute power to inflate. April 7 - Bloomberg (Alexa...

2023-04-07 23:30:00 ET Summary The old investment playbook is out and a new regime that considers high inflation and interest rates is in. Recent events in the banking sector around SVB and Credit Suisse have made clear the importance of staying nimble as investors. Our expect...