FLGV News and Press, Franklin Liberty U.S. Treasury Bond From 03/22/22

The first rate hike since 2018 is behind us, and the bond market celebrated by pressing the yield curve closer to zero. The difference between the 2-year and 10-year note is now just 17 basis points. Total debt in the U.S. economy stands at $88.3 trillion and GDP is about $24 trillion...

Does a recession call rise to the level of a high-confidence forecast? No, not yet. Hedging one’s bets on the business cycle for the US is, for now, rational. It would be naïve to assume that all is well and that recession risk is destined to remain low for the foresee...

European stocks actually performed better than the NASDAQ last week so maybe it was positive developments in the Ukraine war that spurred the rally. The dollar index fell nearly 1% last week but is still in an uptrend across shorter time frames. What the market does on a week to w...

Historical analysis shows that value exposures have tended to outperform in a rising yield environment as it coincides with rising inflation. In a rising rate environment, traditional bonds can lose value, but investors should not write off fixed income exposure altogether. Exposu...

The U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the first time since 2018. Scott Colbourne: Market is taking a cue that the Fed is upping the ante and having to move more aggressively on rates. Colbourne: The Fed's will provide more details in May on unwinding the balance sheet...

The Fed funds rate has been increased 25bp, with Federal Reserve officials forecasting six additional hikes this year and the rate peaking at 2.8% next year. Geopolitical tensions create uncertainty, but the Fed feels the need to step on the accelerator. It increases the likelihoo...

The Fed is set to kick off its tightening cycle today. Whether this translates into durably higher long-end interest rates depends on the market’s economic optimism. The energy crisis means there is less of it. After an overshoot, rates should settle near current levels. ...

In 2022, as oil prices have mercifully plunged and fears of Russian spillover maybe temporarily abate, rate hikes have retaken center stage. Long-term Treasury yields jumped on Monday, as they have over the past two weeks or so, with the entire back end of the yield curve being adjust...

Putin’s gamble, and the West’s response, has brought into view one of the few existential tail risks that isn’t a Black Swan: the risk of an escalation into war between Russia and NATO, and the exchange of nuclear weaponry. We also know that the war between Ukrain...

Corporate high-yield is outperforming the corporate high-grade index. One unusual aspect to the 2022 stock market selloff is that the Treasury trade hasn't happened. The psychological impact of crude oil and gasoline prices may be a bigger factor in the stock market sentiment data...