FLGV News and Press, Franklin Liberty U.S. Treasury Bond From 04/12/22

Supply shocks have created scarcity inflation, making higher inflation more persistent and increasing the risk of a growth slowdown. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields hit three-year highs after it became clear the Fed will start to reduce its balance sheet quickly. We see further yield ri...

Jimmy Xu: Volatility has been more pronounced in fixed income than equities in 2022. Xu: Volatility is uneven across different asset classes. Xu: We have been creating diversification through the use of options, especially in the equity space. For further details see: Wh...

The broader equity categories turned in negative results in Q1. U.S. large-cap stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, held up the best at a decline of 4.6%. Bonds performed worse than many of the equity categories, despite typically being viewed as a safe haven investment. In t...

As investors continue to digest the likely path of this tightening cycle, we think the dramatic moves of recent weeks are set to ease, laying a good foundation for credit investors. We now expect the Fed to hike rates by 50 basis points in both May and June, followed by a sequence of ...

Does the yield curve inversion cause a recession or does it just provide a signal? Is the inversion only about expected future monetary policy? Do other factors also influence the shape of the curve, and if so, can we disentangle the various factors? There is a lot that we don’...

The U.S. government finances its spending by collecting taxes and issuing debt. A steep curve reflects expectations of higher inflation and interest rates that come with a more robust economy. Even in a recession, some sectors do well while others do poorly. For further deta...

One of the main stories in the money and bond markets of late has been the development of inverted yield curves in the Treasury (UST) market. The Fed just finished purchasing almost $5 trillion in securities. Equally as important, the U.S. economy is in rather solid shape, a fact ...

If USTs are upside down, we shouldn’t expect to find outright contradictions elsewhere in places like Japan or Germany. Yields in Germany too have gone vertical over the past few months. Unsurprisingly, the higher Treasuries go, the more they tug on bunds (10s) and bobls (5s) a...

The US 10yr shot back above 2.5% as the 2/5yr re-steepened yesterday. This is not a fluke. Remember the 2/5yr has not inverted; it will eventually. But for now, its resistance is testimony to this being a rising rates environment. Rising rates and a steeper 2/5yr (even if temporar...

Recession forecasts are topical lately, driven by the recent inversion of the Treasury yield curve for 2- and 10-year rates. US nonfarm payrolls rose 431,000 in March, extending a run of healthy gains that suggests the economy’s forward momentum remains strong. Economic mom...