FTSD News and Press, Franklin Liberty Short Duration U.S. Government From 02/14/23

Summary Inflation may finally be coming down. But inflation coming down and returning to 2% are two different things. Consumers still expect high prices this year on many of the goods and services that dominate their spending. By Allison Schrager Inflation may fina...

Summary Fed Chair Jerome Powell talks the party line when he says the Fed may need to “do more” if we get more hot inflation and jobs reports. Employment is a lagging indicator. The fact that the jobs picture is fine now doesn’t mean it will be fine in six months. ...

Summary Inflation is in fact receding, for the same basket of reasons it went up - not math, but markets. Specifically, the market of money (interest rates), the market of goods (supply chains), and the market of labor (employment). Plus, an unexpected chaser: the disruptive potential o...

Summary Ahead of January’s CPI report on Tuesday, consumer expectations towards inflation are generally stable and trending lower. On a one-year basis, inflation expectations dropped ever so marginally falling from 4.99% down to 4.95%. Three-year inflation expectations droppe...

Summary The CPI number, which will be announced this week, will affect all of the markets and is going to significantly move both the bond and equity markets. What is interesting to note is the difference between the annual rate and the latest quarterly rates. It seems as if the Fed is ...

Summary Looking at the current US stock market, the determination of the next important market call is not known. Believers think the Fed can change inflation by controlling the interest rates. On the other side, there are pragmatists who see a much more complex world where stock and ot...

Summary The readings for October and November were also revised, taking a bite out of the “disinflation” scenario. The not-seasonally adjusted data was not revised. The core CPI was revised up for October, November, and December, showing much less “disinflation&...

Summary Falling inflation makes a soft landing seem more plausible. But strong employment growth makes it seem less plausible. Markets are desperate to corral or create a 'good news' outlook. But risk remain two sided; the Fed is serious and it is not bluffing. Badda...

Summary Last week, the Federal Reserve continued to decelerate its rate hikes with a quarter-point hike. Investors have been celebrating that the worst is behind us and the prospects of a soft landing in the economy is the base-case scenario. Despite the perceived Fed pivot, the Fed...

Summary One of the key assumptions behind commodity markets is that it is economic demand that drives pricing. It has been long-conflated that sentiment drives economic activity and that certain correlated indicators are believed to be economic measures and good predictors of future eco...