FTSD News and Press, Franklin Liberty Short Duration U.S. Government From 01/17/24

2024-01-17 01:55:00 ET Summary The Monetary Base is up over 7% since March. M2 is also a bit higher. The primary driver of my bull thesis is the shift in the Fed’s monetary policy. It was only a matter of time before this occurred. The M2 measure of the money supply has...

2024-01-16 22:45:00 ET Summary The unprecedented shrinkage in M2 money supply continues, and with it we have seen generally falling inflation numbers. The M2 shrinkage process began in December 2022 and, as of this writing, it is still ongoing. In theory, if this shrinkage con...

2024-01-16 07:26:00 ET Summary The downward trend that began in June of 2022 is intact and we expect that the 2023 low will be breached during the first quarter of this year. After the supply issue is resolved, the price falls back to near where it was prior to the disruption. ...

2024-01-15 06:44:12 ET Summary Disconnect between Fed policy and risk asset prices will worsen from 2024. Growth of debt issuance has a significant impact on bond yields and stock market performance. Debt issuance is becoming a primary determinant of risk asset prices. There i...

2024-01-15 05:25:00 ET Summary The first price index release of the year brings some less-than-welcome news: Inflation has ticked up once again. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the Consumer Price Index increased 0.3 percent in December. We need to compare the current ...

2024-01-14 04:26:00 ET Summary The SEC finally approved a Bitcoin ETF. The Winklevoss twins filed for the initial Bitcoin ETF in July of 2013 so it’s been 10 years coming. Thursday’s CPI came in a little hotter than expected. And this got the usual suspects talking a...

2024-01-13 02:35:00 ET Summary The Federal Reserve has fueled market conviction that the good old days of extremely low interest rates and abundant liquidity are soon to return. This promises to be quite a challenging year for investors. I think macro uncertainty is especially hig...

2024-01-12 04:15:00 ET Summary Core services account for over 61% of the Consumer Price Index, and that’s where inflation has gotten entrenched. Core CPI accelerated to 0.31% in December from October, the second month in a row of acceleration and fastest increase since Sept...

2024-01-12 01:30:00 ET Summary While recession continues to be a base case of 55%, the odds of a soft landing are getting better. As you near a cycle peak, the economy transitions quickly from strong job formation to outright losses. The Fed has the latitude to cut rates and, ...

2024-01-11 11:20:00 ET Summary In the wake of the Federal Reserve's dovish shift in December, financial markets had moved to price an interest rate cut as soon as March. However, the tight jobs market and today's firmer-than-expected inflation numbers suggest this is unlikely, bar...