IUSS News and Press, Invesco Strategic US Small Company ETF From 12/07/22

Summary After some early weakness, US stocks padded their fall rally last month. Materials led the S&P 500 last month, while the consumer discretionary and energy sectors trailed the market. Amid a weakening US dollar, global stock benchmarks outperformed the US by a wide margin...

Summary Stocks are overbought and overvalued relative to bonds. Over the next year or so, the macro and liquidity environment suggest bonds will fare significantly better than stocks. The growth cycle is a headwind for stocks, but a tailwind for bonds. Institutions will continue to ...

Summary The S&P 500 (SPX) rallied nicely on the heels of what the market took as “dovish” comments from Fed Chair Powell on 11/30/22. The wrinkle in the fabric is that most of the gains are resulting from short covering, not real buyers, at least in the major indexes. ...

Summary Expectations surrounding central bank policy, China’s gradual reopening and a lower US dollar are key to investor sentiment in the final stretch of 2022. Central banks have increased interest rates at the fastest rate on record, and there are signs that higher yields are ...

Summary At least one of two things should happen to warn that an official US recession is about to begin. One is a decline in the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (NOI) to below 48 and the other is a reversal of the yield curve’s trend from flattening/inverting to steepening. ...

Summary Olga and Hugo review their predictions and explore what surprised them in 2022, focusing on GDP, interest rates, earnings growth, energy prices, and the dollar. Our forecast for nominal GDP incorporates expectations for both growth and inflation. We were on the right track by an...

Summary Yesterday's ISM Services Index for November rose unexpectedly, signaling a rebound in the rate of economic growth. That sent bond yields higher and stock prices lower, fueling fears the Fed will raise rates higher for longer. Yet the consensus ignored a similar survey from a...

Summary As Treasury yields have declined by a similar magnitude as to what they did last summer, stocks have rallied by a similar magnitude. The S&P 500 Volatility Index is a few ticks below its August low and close to its lows for the year, save for early January, when we had a bit...

Summary It was long anticipated the “non large-cap growth” asset class would eventually assert itself in terms of market leadership and revert to the mean. The sudden dollar weakness has driven good volume in some of the EM ETFs like EMXC and the Vanguard ETF like VE...

Summary The S&P 500 has been glued to 4,000 heading into this week's options expiration. That's likely to change next week when the option market resets. There could be a grab for puts ahead of the FOMC minutes. Stocks have come roaring back since that cooler-than-ex...