IVOL News and Press, Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge From 05/06/21

While many yields are at, or near, their historic lows, opportunity remains in select segments of emerging-market debt, triple B-rated corporate bonds and certain areas of the mortgage-securities market. A good way to approach value stocks has been to find those that are attractively ...

Unprecedented stimulus has lifted US economic activity to within touching distance of its pre-pandemic levels. President Biden isn't finished with more money on its way to complement a private sector reopening spending splurge. The result is likely to be an economy that is larger ...

There's a negative real rates market today, not in the inverted eurozone rates space but in the US, where a macro boom brewing. Why are real rates so negative? Partly it is well-founded future fears. But the here and now should dominate far more. We are monitoring the various driv...

Today's post rolls out the inaugural Risk Review column for the major asset classes, a monthly update that's the companion piece to the monthly performance report and risk-premia estimates. Risk analysis is a broad and deep subject and so this monthly update will be no one's idea of a...

As the pandemic ends, the U.S. economy is likely to gradually be driven by a circular flow that emphasizes private income and spending rather than government subsidies. From this particular starting point, I expect that the S&P 500 will go nowhere for something approaching 20 year...

For the year, the Dow and S&P 500 index both up double-digit percentages (11%), while the NASDAQ is up a few percentage points less than that (8%). Monetary and fiscal stimulus are creating fertile ground for the surge in growth as well. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ...

Earnings have been good, but the reaction has not been what I would call benign. I think we are headed into another interest rate-driven rotation in the stock market, similar to what we saw in March. The key to whether it works out the same way - a fast shakeout and ultimately a n...

We see near-term volatility in inflation as the economic restart progresses, and believe markets underappreciate potential for medium-term price pressures. U.S. stocks hit record highs supported by strong corporate earnings. The Federal Reserve reiterated its intent to "stay behind th...

April delivered across-the-board gains in the major asset classes as risk-assets around the world rebounded from widespread losses in March. The lead performer in April: broadly defined commodities, which surged 8.3% via the Bloomberg Commodity Index. The worst performer last mont...

Last week, we talked about inflation. This week, we are looking at shortages. The market looks tired and many are making summer plans. Sell in May and go away? The rollover of options this week presents a real opportunity for volatility to return. The options market had the market...