IVOL News and Press, Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge From 06/11/21

The latest inflation numbers are out, up 0.64% from April to May (7.7% annualized), on top of 0.77% (9.2% annualized) from March to April. Not all inflation is the same, and what you experience depends on what you buy and where you buy it. The current surge of inflation is concent...

May CPI inflation surprised on the upside, with month-on-month 0.6% vs. 0.4% Bloomberg consensus. May’s 0.6% month-on-month is below April’s 0.8%, highlighting the decline in high-frequency inflation. If one calculates the longer-horizon inflation rates, one can see ...

blackred/E+ via Getty Images A higher-than-expected inflation print in the U.S. yesterday showed prices soaring by 5% in May, compared with a year ago, marking the biggest increase since the Great Recession. While it was somewhat distorted by the pandemic, dueling narratives are taking shape ...

I last covered IVOL, an inflation and rates hedge ETF, seven months ago. I was bearish about the fund, but it has performed better than expected. A look at what I got wrong, and right, about IVOL follows. For further details see: IVOL: What Went Wrong, What Went Right

Consumer price inflation jumped 0.6%MoM in May, after recording 0.8% increases in April and 0.6% in March. Core inflation jumped even more, gaining 0.7%MoM after rising 0.9% in April. The stimulus-fueled economy is booming. However, the pandemic has led to scarring in the economy that...

With input costs rising sharply, the rise in consumer price inflation has only just begun. As shortages and supply chain disruptions are priced through to consumers, goods inflation is set to trend higher. We still believe the impact will be temporary, but in the US less so than i...

For the month of May 2021, China’s General Administration of Customs believes the total US$ value of exports exiting that country was an impressive-sounding $263.9 billion. If December 2020, or thereabouts, does present the possible top of the 2020 recession rebound, it also wo...

We expect the European Central Bank to maintain its current pace of asset purchases even though the economic restart is gaining momentum. U.S. nonfarm payrolls growth picked up in May. We caution against extrapolating too much from erratic near-term data amid a powerful restart. U...

The latest leading economic data indicate that the recovery is intact and that the strong GDP growth reported for the first quarter of this year will continue. We were looking for the US economy to recover rapidly during the second half of 2020, level off during the first half of 2021...

This has been a run in stocks from the March lows, all while without even really experiencing the usually recession beforehand. That run has been coupled with record revisions of earning forecasts, setting us up for what would seem to be an inevitable fall. However, markets can trend ...