KLDW News and Press, Knowledge Leaders Developed World From 07/11/22

We see a new era of volatile inflation and growth sweeping aside a period of moderation. We downgrade equities and upgrade credit in this new regime. U.S. jobs data last Friday reinforced the supply shock causing persistent inflation. Yields resumed their rise as markets priced higher...

For the first time in decades, we now have an inflation problem. This is prompting central banks to tighten monetary conditions, just as the global economy is weakening. This does not bode well for investment prospects. If things get really bad, a pivot back to monetary easing cou...

The global economic outlook has deteriorated sharply; we now expect GDP growth to be well below potential in 2023. While the near-term economic outlook is challenging, not all downturns are catastrophic - unlike those during the pandemic and global financial crisis. The economic o...

Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility. Markets have faced a laundry list of concerns this year, including new COVID-19 lockdowns and an economic slowdown in China, the Russia-Ukraine war, surging inflation, and central-bank tightening. We think ...

US and Global markets recoiled from the higher inflation/CPI data last week. The US Fed raised interest rates by 75bp on June 15. It is clear that global markets expected inflation to stay elevated but were hoping for some moderately lower data showing the recent Fed moves had already...

Growth concerns, inflation and volatility fueled the debate at our Outlook Forum over why we’re entering a new macro and market regime and what that means. Poor activity data reinforced slowdown fears, resulting in falling yields and rising stocks last week. Persistent UK infla...

Federal Reserve wants to hit the brakes, a 180-degree reversal from the recent two-year effort to turbo-stimulate the U.S. economy. USD's strength since early last year has defied a widening trade deficit, historic negative real interest rates, and growing anxiety that weaponizing the...

Growth is slowing, but it’s slowing to trend at this point. So not to zero, not to negative, but something like the trend that we’ve experienced over the last couple of decades. So, if you’re looking for a great way to play inflation, look to the small cap asset c...

Russia's war with Ukraine and recent lockdowns in mainland China have further disrupted supply chains, adding to cost pressures. The US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 75 basis points at its mid-June meeting and signaled its determination to return inflation to 2%, acknowled...

Worsening consumer and business sentiment, increased inflation, and central banks moving to tighten monetary policy, with the US Federal Reserve being the most aggressive, have increased the risk of a global recession. When China imposed widespread lockdowns in April in pursuit of its...