MBG News and Press, SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Mortgage Backed Bond From 04/09/19

As I have written many times before, I believe that the Fed follows the market and does not lead it. In fact, you can read my last article on the matter right here, as it explains this perspective using many historical examples. So, in following up on this perspective, let’s see if ...

For the past ten years or so, I have argued that investors in the stock market have placed most of their attention on the behavior of the Federal Reserve System. For much of this time Federal Reserve officials led by Chairman Ben Bernanke overtly focused on the stock market with the intentio...

Revisiting Credit Spreads & Quality Spreads Corporate bond spreads, or the difference in yield between a corporate bond and an equal maturity Treasury bond, measures the relative risk of owning various corporate bonds across the risk spectrum relative to the "risk-free" rate. As...

Outspoken former Fed advisor Danielle DiMartino Booth joined Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a no-punches-pulled conversation about the Federal Reserve during our recent Hedgeye Investing Summit . As she explains in the brief excerpt from the interview below, Fed Chair Jerome Powell qui...

As I stated in December 2019, keep your eyes on the bond markets in 2019. And, I believe, watching the bond markets has given us the most interesting insights into the economic situation and the attitude of investors available. The latest bounce in the bond markets came in the last half of M...

Last week, the yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007. The yield for 10-year Treasuries fell below the yield for the 3-month T-Bill. The inversion set off alarm bells and US stocks fell sharply. While concerns are reasoned, the alarm bells may be premature. Inversion is an hist...

Getting long U.S. Treasury bonds has been a lucrative, contrarian move for Hedgeye subscribers for many months now. And while Hedgeye has been bullish on bonds since the end of September, the latest CFTC non-commercial futures and options contract data shows that Wall Street is—beli...

Last week stocks shuddered as ten year yields dipped below treasury bills, reminding investors that yield curve inversions eerily precede recessions. A St. Louis Fed model using the yield curve gives a 30% probability of a recession within a year, up from 24% in December. Nonetheless, the S&...

Is it different this time? Popular measures of the yield curve, including the 10-year vs. 3-month Treasury spread, have inverted which has caused interest rates to move to the front page. Interest rates are always on my front page in terms of analyzing markets and we accurately predicted t...

There’s no real nice way to say that I found Wednesday's FOMC minutes to be disgraceful. The only conclusion I’m left with is that Jerome Powell has capitulated and is now scared of either the market turning on him, the president turning on him or both. Otherwise, how do you expl...