QLD News and Press, ProShares Ultra QQQ From 03/14/22

It was more like a natural disaster or an exogenous shock to the economy because of the way the government shut down so much of the economy. Two indications that are worrisome are energy price surges and the flattening yield curve. Understanding that 60/40 isn’t necessarily...

Oil price shocks become deflationary because they trigger demand destruction and economic contraction, especially when the shock coincides with a leap in the cost of food, shelter, and other staples. The Canadian Petrodollar has been diving against the greenback over the last year, ev...

The economic outlook for 2022 and 2023 in the United States is good, though inflation will remain high and storm clouds grow in later years. Economic growth will be pushed up by past stimulus, both fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus. Inflation will remain high this year and nex...

We’ve noted over the past two months that the pace of US economic activity is set to slow markedly during the first half of this year. Note that a sign of the downward pressure on economic activity resulting from high inflation is the decline in ‘real’ wages. ...

As the world reels from the crisis, the blowback is rippling across the world economy and markets. The current risk premia analysis implicitly recommends managing expectations down for GMI and other global multi-asset-class portfolios. The mean reversion factor is estimated as the...

At the moment, some variables are beginning to align that might be a sign of a recession on the horizon. Up until the Russian invasion into Ukraine, the market was nearly unanimous in thinking the Federal Reserve would increase the Fed Funds Rate by at least .25%, if not .50%. The...

Forecasting macro activity and managing expectations have become substantially more difficult. As the West imposes sanctions on Russia, the potential for a severe supply shock lurks – particularly for oil and natural gas. Macroeconomic risk will rise, perhaps leading to a n...

The inflation story has peaked. Our concern has moved on to recession fears. The bond market is telling us that. Bonds are a bit oversold and could be due for a bounce, but the more esoteric areas of the bond market are calling for a recession, with rate cuts to follow probably in 202...

The latest leading economic data indicate that the US expansion is intact. There are signs that the pace of economic activity will slow markedly during the first half of this year. Money-supply trends warn that a boom-to-bust transition could begin as soon as the first half of thi...

The stimulus payments led to a short-term boost in PCE, corresponding with increased economic growth. However, stimulus-fueled activity has a dark side. Economic stagnation arrives as expected as the sugar rush of liquidity continues to fade from the system. When it comes to the s...