QLD News and Press, ProShares Ultra QQQ From 06/14/22

The S&P 500 is now officially in a bear market. 73% of all stocks are now down 20% or more, with the median stock down by -29.4%. The causes of today's rout were an inflation hangover and recession fears. The next shoe to drop could be a 75 bp hike in the Fed Funds rate. T...

Money supply growth can often be a helpful measure of economic activity, and an indicator of coming recessions. Even with March's bump in growth, money supply growth remains far below the unprecedented highs experienced during much of the past two years. The money supply metric us...

Do things “break” because of rate hikes, or do they break on their own? My view is that the main effect of policy rate changes is via the effect on the housing market. At this point, worrying about the innards of inflation is a secondary concern relative to the ...

The S&P 500 has suffered a peak-to-trough decline in 2022 that parallels recent episodes of financial market corrections that were not followed by recessions. When recessions have occurred, the decline in equity markets has been much more severe. The Financial stress index poi...

More Americans say they hear mostly negative news about the economy than hear positive news, or a balance of positive and negative. In many countries, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. There is indeed a sense in which high inflation can lea...

Consumers in America will keep spending in 2022 despite inflation running higher than wage gains. The surge in durable goods spending seen in the last two years may reduce demand for durables in the coming years - spending on consumer durables will taper down gradually but not severel...

If there was only one causal factor nudging the economy into recession, it might be a mild, brief recession. Severe, long-lasting recessions occur when multiple conditions arise at the same time. Since stimulus generated the inflation weighing on the economy, stimulus can't be use...

Developing markets are more sensitive to the ebbs and flows of global growth and inflation. The pivot to monetary tightening raises the odds of a near-term global recession. The big wave of easing in 2020 is at least partly to blame for elevated inflation. For further detail...

The US consumer price index (CPI) has risen by over 8% in the past year, similar to Europe’s 7.4% increase. In the US, higher retail gasoline prices have historically led to higher expectations of inflation, leading to higher actual inflation. Going forward, achieving a div...

If you are an investor and sell every time your perception of uncertainty rises, you will avoid risk, but you will also miss opportunities. Our heightened state of awareness about uncertainty has us focused on the negative outcomes, assuming the worst-case scenarios will be realized. ...