QQD News and Press, Simplify Growth Equity Plus Downside Convexity ETF From 01/30/23

Summary Most of the monthly short leading indicators have turned down; all but one of those which remain positive are employment-related. All of those will be updated this week, including 3 in the jobs report on Friday. Along with construction, manufacturing, and short-term unemploy...

Summary Better days are ahead for the markets in 2023, although not necessarily for the economy. The economy has not yet felt the full brunt of all of the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening measures of 2022. Interest rates are likely to rise slightly higher, remain elevated, an...

Summary The Fed to signal an end to the interest rate hiking campaign. The economy could be in a recession already for 2023 Q1. The stock market is now more overvalued than in January of 2022. Market expectations vs the Fed's guidance The FOMC is scheduled to meet for ...

Summary The S&P 500 has broken trendline resistance and is above all its daily moving averages. The technical outlook is increasingly bullish. However, bears still have a chance and will pin their hopes on the FOMC meeting reversing the rally. Not all break-outs succeed. ...

Summary We expect a shift in the messaging towards monetary policy at the February 2nd Fed Meeting which can work as a catalyst for risk assets. The latest December PCE data showed inflation ended 2022 well below the Fed's forecast from the last FOMC. We highlight ongoing themes dur...

Summary While many have their eyes fixated on a “Magical Trendline”, the rest of world has broken above. Canada signalled a PAUSE at its current rate while the Bank assesses the full impact (lagged effect) of its hikes. AAII Sentiment Survey result, Bullish Percent tic...

Summary While the US economy remains in growth territory this year, the odds are rising that it will stumble into a recession during 2023. 2022 was a down year for most asset classes, with the FOMC raising the Fed funds rate by over 400 bps while battling inflation. We expect the cr...

Summary Inflation will continue as the hot story of 2023, and it may have a surprise in store very soon. The Fed appears to be blind to serious problems in the labor market. As a result, its crushing down of the economy could counterintuitively make inflation worse by the end of the...

Summary As we look to 2023, we don’t believe a recession is inevitable as many do; a soft landing is within the realm of reason, or at the very least, a no landing, as was the case in 2022. We’ve long held to a proprietary investment approach which postulates that three cy...

Summary The S&P 500 is very expensive on a PE multiple basis. The index is also very expensive relative to the 10-year rate. This is for earnings growth that is deteriorating. The next leg of the bear market could be here, as investors begin to turn their attention awa...