QQD News and Press, Simplify Growth Equity Plus Downside Convexity ETF From 02/07/23

Summary We likely experienced peak rates of inflation during the fourth quarter of 2022, and as price increases abate, the coming months may bring the end of the central-bank tightening. However, we believe inflation is likely to remain above the historically low levels experienced duri...

Summary It's been a while since we've seen a meaningful top in this bear market. Incidentally, 4,200 in the S&P 500 is the 20% bear market bounce many market participants have eyed as a plausible near-term top. The Fed, inflation, worsening economic readings, the consumer, an ea...

Summary There's a massive repricing in rates taking place. The Fed Funds Futures now see a peak terminal rate of 5.1%. The odds are rising that rates go even higher than those projections. All it took was one data point, and now the market is suddenly not only seeing things th...

Summary Last week gave the bulls everything they could have reasonably wanted. An obliging FOMC, strong data, and positive technicals, all contributed to the rally to 4195. The only 'problem' is that with everything going right, something can easily go wrong. Bears will look for a s...

Summary Market movements this year indicate that many investors don't believe that the Federal Reserve will really live up to its picture of continued increases in its policy rate. Mr. Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, does not seem to have the confidence of the financial markets and on...

Summary Three of the major investment themes of 2022 were: inflation and central bank responses; commodity and energy price spikes; and the China COVID lockdown. We discuss how each of these will likely play out in 2023. Our general market view for the year ahead is relatively sanguine,...

Summary On Wednesday we got a de-clawed hawk in Chairman Powell and he treaded carefully. For the first time, Powell acknowledged we are in a dis-inflationary environment and goods inflation is coming down fast. In my view, the most important quote of the press conference was, ...

Summary The first employment report of 2023 certainly surprised everybody. Friday morning’s report was the tenth straight better-than-expected report, which is a record and easily surpasses the prior peaks in September 2020 and March 2015. The US economy has added 4.967 milli...

Summary The jobs data surprised to the upside. The ISM data surprised to the upside. The stock market appears to be grossly mispriced relative to rates. The most stunning part of the FOMC press conference on Wednesday wasn't at the beginning or the middle. It came at the e...

Summary The Federal Reserve continues its quantitative tightening, and it keeps the pliers tight around the monetary facet. The Fed's securities portfolio continues to decline. The M2 money stock has now been in decline for about ten months. These data all seem to point toward a...