RFV News and Press, Invesco S&P Midcap 400 Pure Value From 01/12/23

Summary The rate of inflation posts a meaningful decline for a third month in a row. Interest rates are falling across the yield curve, and the probabilities of 25-basis-point increases in February and March have increased. This would result in a lower terminal rate than the Fed is ...

Summary Monetary policy changes move through the economy in 12 to 24-month lags. Would-be sellers are also often reluctant to admit that prices are falling. Eventually, a lack of patience, financial resources, time and other constraints ultimately prompt capitulation selling and, fi...

Summary U.S. imports of goods produced in China collapsed further in November 2022, continuing the plunge that began in September. The continuing collapse of U.S. imports from China has pulled the combined value of goods traded between the U.S. and China below a counterfactual trajector...

Summary Despite what pundits say, inflation will persist in 2023. China and emerging markets are set to rebound in the coming year. No U.S. economic recession will be seen (surprise, surprise!). U.S. equity markets will climb, helped by massive short covering. ...

Summary We already know about housing’s woes, but manufacturing, and now service-related gauges, are in contractionary territory. However, the latest jobs report continued to reveal that a rather solid labor market setting still exists. So, what if the U.S. economy manages th...

Summary After enduring one of the worst years on record across asset classes, investors should find more cause for optimism in 2023, even as the global economy faces challenges. Inflation is likely to moderate, and risks to the inflation outlook appear more balanced than they did severa...

Summary Inflation rates may be coming down for now, but it may not stay that way. Commodity prices are rising as the dollar weakens and China re-opens. If the trend continues, expect inflation to either rise or get stuck. It turns out that the weaker dollar is indeed helpi...

Summary The NFIB released its Small Business Optimism Index for December early this morning. The report showed optimism has begun to fade after a modest rebound in the past few months. The index fell back below 90.0 to the lowest level since the June of 89.5. The 2.1-point drop in t...

Summary Like any one factor, forex risk’s influence on the US stock market is dynamic. The dollar-stocks dance isn’t perfect. Indeed, sometimes the relationship is close to non-existent. The deeper the S&P 500’s 1-year decline when the US dollar’s 1-y...

Summary Looking around the globe, we find a few major stock markets with bullish setups. Most are leaning bearish to perhaps strongly bearish. The S&P 500 is currently 30 on a list of 36 country indexes, with Turkey, Poland, Italy, Denmark, and China taking the top slots. Longer...