RJI News and Press, AB Svensk Ekportkredit ELEMENTS Linked to the Rogers International Commodity Index - Total Return Structured Product From 04/11/22

Does the yield curve inversion cause a recession or does it just provide a signal? Is the inversion only about expected future monetary policy? Do other factors also influence the shape of the curve, and if so, can we disentangle the various factors? There is a lot that we don’...

We see the West’s drive for energy security slowing growth, increasing inflation and stoking demand for non-Russian fossil fuels to alleviate consumer pain. Data last week showed U.S. inflation at 40-year highs and a robust labor market. We expect the Fed to deliver on this yea...

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index ticked slightly higher in March to an annualized 5.8% pace, fractionally above last month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors (defined below) to adjust the forecast trims GMI&#...

We see specific themes in commodities that could benefit from the transition to a low carbon economy. On average, since 1997, commodities have historically outperformed the S&P 500 in the first 12 months after the beginning of a rate hiking cycle. Investors are increasingly us...

The magnitude of the war’s impact on growth and inflation will be determined by how much and for how long energy prices rise. The war, economic sanctions and the associated rise in energy costs are likely to exacerbate global shipping impediments, too, which had begun to recove...

Pick any barometer of costs these days, and the story is the same: Prices are up - and in a dramatic fashion. The first thing that jumps out is the dismal performance of most asset classes during periods of low growth and high inflation - otherwise known as stagflation. A solid fo...

Rising prices are always caused by more units of currency being directed to scarce or tangible assets. The Ukraine war has created another excuse to blame inflation on oil and natural gas. More units of currency are going to scarce assets as investors look for protection against i...

Commodities exposure, designed carefully, can provide effective inflation defense and portfolio diversification. After nearly a decade of struggles and underinvestment, the supportive infrastructure and supply for many commodities have become strained. Commodities don’t all...

Commodities and equities are both showing renewed strength on the heels of global interest rate increases. Inflation shows no sign of abating as energy, metals, food products, and housing continue their upward bias. The SPY has enjoyed a sharp rally back up after touching its Fibonacc...

The CRB commodity price index (39% fossil fuels and 41% agriculture) has leapt 25% since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th and is up 38% year-to-date. The cost of living shock is big amid negative real wage gains and a freakish jump in shelter expense over the past two years. ...