RPG News and Press, Invesco S&P 500 Pure Growth From 01/10/23

Summary The NFIB released its Small Business Optimism Index for December early this morning. The report showed optimism has begun to fade after a modest rebound in the past few months. The index fell back below 90.0 to the lowest level since the June of 89.5. The 2.1-point drop in t...

Summary 22Q4 earnings are forecasted at $447.07 billion (-2.2% y/y, -3.6% q/q) while revenue is forecasted at $3,697.7 billion (+4.1% y/y, -0.7% q/q). This will mark the first negative earnings growth rate since 2020 Q3 while revenue growth will be the lowest since 2020 Q4. Analysts...

Summary Like any one factor, forex risk’s influence on the US stock market is dynamic. The dollar-stocks dance isn’t perfect. Indeed, sometimes the relationship is close to non-existent. The deeper the S&P 500’s 1-year decline when the US dollar’s 1-y...

Summary Looking around the globe, we find a few major stock markets with bullish setups. Most are leaning bearish to perhaps strongly bearish. The S&P 500 is currently 30 on a list of 36 country indexes, with Turkey, Poland, Italy, Denmark, and China taking the top slots. Longer...

Summary The lag effect of monetary policy changes will surprise the Fed as the fiscal “pig” of stimulus begins to exit the economic “python.”. The massive surge in stimulus sent directly to households resulted in an unprecedented spike in “savings,...

Summary On a coincident basis, driven by a historically tight labour market and robust industrial production growth, the US economy remains deceptively strong despite negative real incomes and tight financial conditions. However, the leading indicators of the business cycle continue to ...

Summary The volatility in Treasury prices was far bigger than the volatility in stock prices. I think in 2023 bonds and stocks will trade places and the volatility in stock prices will be bigger than the volatility in bond prices. Stocks can go down a lot even if the economy is doin...

Summary The overall stock market is grossly oversold, and my small- to mid-cap stocks are trading at 6.8 times median current earnings and just 2.8 times median forecasted 2023 earnings. Clearly, the price-to-earnings compression has become ridiculous and relentless. We are now at the t...

Summary A true “pivot” by the Fed, should inflation metrics demonstrate consistent monthly declines, could ignite a sustained market rally. We believe we could witness a material stock-market recovery before the end of 2023. We believe that the risk/reward balance has ...

Summary The first week of trading in 2023 saw the S&P 500 (SPX) rise 1.4% over where it ended 2022, closing the week at 3,895.08. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continues to project quarter-point rate hikes at both the Fed's upcoming 1 February and 22 March (2023-Q1) meetings, with t...