RPG News and Press, Invesco S&P 500 Pure Growth From 01/10/23

Summary The first week of trading in 2023 saw the S&P 500 (SPX) rise 1.4% over where it ended 2022, closing the week at 3,895.08. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continues to project quarter-point rate hikes at both the Fed's upcoming 1 February and 22 March (2023-Q1) meetings, with t...

Summary Over the last year, major changes occurred, so 2023 will be about managing and reacting to the changes that arrived. As we enter 2023, the pessimism of 2022 may shift to optimism, as economies and markets adapt to the major changes thrust upon them in the year just passed. E...

Summary When investing one must differentiate between those indicators based on sentiment and those based on hard counts of economic fundamentals. It is economic fundamentals which eventually emerge into the consensus thinking and produce returns that are better than average. When s...

Summary Top-down and bottom-up forecasts are increasingly diverging, and we think 2023 will be largely about how these divergences resolve themselves. In commodities, after a major spike in 2022, top-down commentators point to slowing growth and inflation, and the historical pattern of ...

Summary When valuing or analyzing a company, I find myself looking for and using macro data (risk premiums, default spreads, tax rates) and industry-level data on profitability, risk and leverage. Much of my focus, when it comes to data, is on company-specific variables, rather than mac...

Summary A positive unemployment report was published this past week and the market did not react as most expected yet again. These economic reports often cause confusion amongst investors and analysts alike, as the market moves opposite of expectations. I outline support, resistance...

Summary Investors continue to remain optimistic that the Fed will pivot and lower rates in 2023. Friday's rally was fueled by hopes that the economy was weakening per the December employment report. The Fed's own projections communicate their expectations and what they will tolerate...

Summary This is not an article about the airline industry, it is about this false notion that transitioning to the cloud, is a luxury. This is about enterprises cutting their IT development budgets, this is tantamount to an enterprise cutting its own throat, and it is not just Southwest...

Summary The Household report had been significantly lower than the Headline Report going back to April of this year. Looking at the quarterly Birth/Death data shows that 41% of Q3 jobs were made up of the Birth/Death assumptions. The underlying weakness in the data is getting missed...

Summary 5 out of 10 leading indicators suggest the economy is not heading for a recession. However, 3 out of 10 of these leading indicators suggest the economy is heading for a recession. 2 out of these 10 leading indicators provide a neutral outlook of the economy. Overall, the...