SCHP News and Press, Schwab U.S. TIPs From 09/13/23

2023-09-13 11:30:00 ET Summary US August inflation data shows a modest upside surprise, with headline CPI at 0.6% and core prices at 0.3%. The Fed is likely to keep one final rate hike in their forecasts despite keeping rates on hold in September. Risks to inflation include hi...

2023-09-05 11:30:00 ET Summary We up short-term sovereign bonds on attractive yields and downgrade credit in the long run. We stay cautious on long-term bonds even with the surge in yields. U.S. stocks recovered last week as 10-year yields slid from 16-year highs. Jobs data showed...

2023-08-31 04:28:00 ET Summary US$ gold price has retraced less than half of its up-move from its Q4-2022 low. The decline in the T-Bond price over the past four months and especially over the past month was not driven by changing expectations regarding inflation or the Fed’...

2023-08-25 05:30:00 ET Summary The NY Fed's yield-curve inversion model predicts a high probability of a recession in the next year, but risk premia in equity and credit markets do not reflect this. Junk credit spreads are vulnerable to a "violent repricing" and junk bonds are at ...

2023-08-18 23:30:00 ET Summary TIPS and gold are widely considered to be classic inflation hedges, but they couldn't be more different. TIPS look far more attractive than gold these days, since they are not only an inflation hedge but also a deflation hedge and a hedge against an ...

2023-08-14 20:25:00 ET Summary The 10 year Treasury yield has been in an uptrend since the summer of 2021 which is obvious to anyone who can see. The 10 year TIPS yield today is consistent with the rates that prevailed prior to the 2008 crisis and I think that means that we are fi...

2023-08-14 05:30:33 ET Summary The Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF is a contrarian trade that bets on 2-year US bond yields falling relative to 10-year inflation expectations. The IVOL ETF holds a portfolio of inflation-linked bonds and options to hedge ...

2023-08-11 07:00:00 ET Summary The US dollar remains firm, rising against major currencies and emerging market currencies. US quarterly refunding completed successfully, with a slight downgrade in chances of a Fed hike next month. China's lending figures for July were unexpect...

2023-08-07 18:55:00 ET Summary The stock market was down a little over 2% last week in what may be the start of a larger correction. In the 1970 recession, rates rose right until the onset of recession and hit a new high for that cycle during the recession. The employment repo...

2023-07-17 07:35:00 ET Summary Is the Fed responsible for the drop in the inflation rate? If not, what does that imply about future policy and inflation? The 10-year/3-month Treasury spread has been inverted since last year, and that has been a reliable predictor of recession in t...