SCHQ News and Press, Schwab Long-Term U.S. Treasury ETF From 01/25/24

2024-01-25 02:30:00 ET Summary While treasury rates, across maturities, jumped dramatically in 2022, their behavior diverged in 2023. The yield curve has been inverted for all of 2023, in all of its variations. If inflation continues its downward path, it is likely that we wil...

2024-01-25 02:18:00 ET Summary There will be a lot of firsts for the economic history books if this business cycle can survive a labor market slowdown, 525 basis points (bps) of rate hikes and an extremely inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve. But the dovish shift from the U.S. Federal ...

2024-01-24 18:15:00 ET Summary Less than two weeks ago, the March 2024 FOMC meeting was widely viewed as the timeline for first cut, with the probability coming in at just about 77%. Post-Fed comments over the last few trading sessions have pushed that probability down to 46%, wit...

2024-01-24 11:29:00 ET Summary Many investors remain overweight cash, but markets have begun to price for a substantial decline in short-term interest rates. The Asset Allocation Committee (“the AAC”) therefore thinks it is time to deploy liquidity, locking in bond y...

2024-01-23 06:30:00 ET Summary Why 2024 won't be the same as 2023 for equity markets. Are bonds getting last year's rally this year? How the U.S. election could impact markets. Whether it be slowing growth, upcoming U.S. elections or numerous geopolitical concerns, t...

2024-01-22 15:40:00 ET Summary The General Business Conditions index fell to -43.7, a depth only exceeded by the -78.2 reading in April of 2020 with the economy shut down for COVID. New orders (-49.4 vs -11.3) and shipments (-31.3 vs -6.4) also posted sharp declines and unfilled o...

2024-01-22 12:50:00 ET Summary Geopolitical fragmentation is accelerating, as seen with recent events in Asia and the Middle East. We see it keeping inflation pressures elevated longer term. U.S. stocks climbed to record highs last week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose as mar...

2024-01-22 03:48:00 ET Summary It's increasingly challenging for the bond market - and Fed officials - to downplay the odds of a meaningful upside surprise in U.S. economic activity. The rates market ended the week pricing a 49% probability of a rate cut by the March 20th FOMC mee...

2024-01-21 06:45:39 ET Summary Renewed uncertainty regarding the pace and time of 2024 rate cuts by the Fed add to risks for stocks and bonds. The odds for a March rate cut have declined to under 50% from as high as 80% earlier this month. We expect the Fed to maintain a hawki...

2024-01-20 21:06:00 ET Summary Our belief is that there will primarily be one call to get correct - one call to rule them all - and that is whether the US economy has a hard landing (recession) or a soft one. Every hard landing starts out as a soft landing, marked by the Fed's int...