SCHX News and Press, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap From 07/15/23

2023-07-15 02:25:00 ET Summary For months, many leading indicators of economic activity have been signaling a future recession. The full effects of policy rate hikes are only now just starting to emerge, and should increasingly impact the real economy in coming quarters. While...

2023-07-15 00:36:23 ET Summary The article suggests that a recession is likely to start within the next year, based on economic theory and history. I discuss the Austrian Business Cycle Theory, which states that monetary expansion can lead to a misallocation of resources, causing ...

2023-07-12 21:12:00 ET Summary The yield curve spread that most accurately forecasts recessions is that between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Fed economists and policymakers are also predominantly Keynesian, so they believe in the Phillips Cur...

2023-07-11 10:20:00 ET Summary The Composite Recession Probability Index currently estimates that an NBER-defined downturn in progress is just 10%. The near-term future also looks relatively upbeat, based on a pair of proprietary indicators featured in The US Business Cycle Risk R...

2023-07-10 21:10:00 ET Summary At the beginning of this year, the consensus was that a recession was imminent (within 6 months) so stocks would perform poorly in the first half of the year; bonds were the better choice. The 10-year Treasury yield finally broke above the short-term...

2023-07-10 13:17:00 ET Summary It’s possible to enter a period where recession clearly becomes increasingly likely, even as it remains exceedingly difficult to predict the timing of a recession with any confidence. An extremely soft landing would allow inflation to fall whi...

2023-07-06 23:23:00 ET Summary The U-3 unemployment rate moved up to 3.7 percent, a historically low figure but a big jump from the prior month’s level (3.4 percent, a figure not bettered since 1953). Housing activity remained mixed over the past month, with the new side of...

2023-07-05 22:43:00 ET Summary The doubling in Canada’s population over a period of 56 years is pretty modest, amounting to about 1.25% per year, compounded. Canada is currently experiencing record high levels of employment and near record low levels of unemployment. Fo...

2023-07-04 01:50:00 ET Summary The yield curve, as measured by the 2-year note and 10-year note (Treasury yields) have gotten more inverted of late, registering at -106 basis points (bps) at last count. Even at that, many bond experts are saying that we are still in “lucky&...

2023-07-03 23:05:00 ET Summary Over many economic regimes, U.S. equities have reliably converted risk into return, especially when held for extended periods. Falling but elevated inflation has created a disconnect between nominal earnings and the real economy. The depletion of...