SCHX News and Press, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap From 07/24/23

2023-07-24 06:13:43 ET Summary The yield curve, which looks at the spread between the 10-year treasury note and the year bill, has been an excellent predictor of coming recessions since 1960, with only one error made in the mid-1960s. Despite its strong track record, the yield cur...

2023-07-24 05:37:00 ET Summary Markets assume that a 25 bps rate increase at the FOMC’s meeting next Wednesday will wrap up the Fed’s tightening cycle. The S&P 500 increased 0.7% (up 18.1% y-t-d), and the Dow jumped 2.1% (up 6.3%). Federal Reserve Credit decl...

2023-07-23 09:15:00 ET Summary Despite resilient U.S. growth, the foundations have been laid for a short and shallow recession later this year. Notably, as a U.S. recession will likely be short and shallow, any equity pullback will likely be short and shallow. The following recove...

2023-07-22 05:13:00 ET Summary The Federal Reserve has tightened monetary policy significantly over the first half of this year, with a high likelihood of another 25-basis-point hike in the federal funds rate at the end of July. Until now, market agents have mostly ignored politic...

2023-07-19 09:02:00 ET Summary Although central banks slashed benchmark rates to zero by December 2008 and pumped unprecedented liquidity (QE), financial markets tanked until March 2009. The US Fed will likely pause its tightening efforts soon. But the economic cycle and stock mar...

2023-07-19 04:54:00 ET Summary The yield curve is the difference between the current 10-year T-Note yield and the 2-Year T-Note yield. The Fed Funds Rate is the rate the Fed sets on overnight money to establish the demand for money necessary to get inflation to its 2% target. ...

2023-07-17 07:35:00 ET Summary Is the Fed responsible for the drop in the inflation rate? If not, what does that imply about future policy and inflation? The 10-year/3-month Treasury spread has been inverted since last year, and that has been a reliable predictor of recession in t...

2023-07-17 07:00:00 ET Summary Economically or cyclically oriented sectors have performed the best this year. The equity market is telegraphing a recovering or expanding economic environment. With the economy possibly set to regain some momentum, favorable returns seem a likel...

2023-07-16 05:30:00 ET Summary Obviously, AI has supercharged the indexes, for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. Small businesses tend to feel the impact of monetary tightening with a lag compared to larger companies. The Fed, although they haven’t come out and said it, t...

2023-07-15 02:25:00 ET Summary For months, many leading indicators of economic activity have been signaling a future recession. The full effects of policy rate hikes are only now just starting to emerge, and should increasingly impact the real economy in coming quarters. While...