SCHX News and Press, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap From 11/14/23

2023-11-14 15:12:00 ET Summary U.S. real personal consumption has held up well in the face of higher interest rates because jobs kept growing. Inflation has receded in virtually every category, although shelter is coming down more slowly due to the confusing and lagged calculation...

2023-11-14 06:51:00 ET Summary In the context of fighting inflation, the “final mile” represents the successful and sustainable achievement of a central bank’s inflation target. Perhaps the biggest surprise in macroeconomics this year has been the resilience o...

2023-11-07 21:35:00 ET Summary The third quarter GDP report surprised most economists with a blowout 4.9% gain. Is a downside reversal brewing for Q4? Early estimates for the final months of 2023 point to a substantially softer pace of economic activity. It’s premature ...

2023-11-03 16:04:00 ET Summary Despite substantially tighter monetary policy, the strength of jobs and retail sales stumped expectations of a recessionary downturn in 2022. Current real-time economic data suggests the economy is rapidly moving from economic slowdown toward recessi...

2023-11-02 21:00:00 ET Summary Due to rapid government spending, inventory building by the private sector and about $500B coming out of the Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility, US ‘real’ GDP grew at an annualised rate of almost 5% in Q3-2023. It has been known for a f...

2023-10-31 14:50:00 ET Summary Since July, the probability of a recession starting sometime in the next 12 months has declined. However, the U.S. treasury yield curve is still inverted and the probability of recession remains elevated. The Recession Probability Track indicates...

2023-10-27 07:45:00 ET Summary Following the September FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated its higher for longer mantra and upgraded its economic forecast to include a no recession scenario. If the average delay between the final rate increase and recession is 11 months, ...

2023-10-25 20:35:00 ET Summary With each passing day this year, it seems as though the underperformance of small caps relative to large caps keeps getting wider. While the small-cap Russell 2000 is currently down over 30% from its post-Covid highs and within 1% of a multi-year low...

2023-10-20 04:30:00 ET Summary Rising inflation precedes recessions, and monetary policy actions are pro-cyclical rather than counter-cyclical. The combination of fiscal stimulus and monetary expansion has resulted in negative net national saving, which will impair economic growth...

2023-10-19 10:30:00 ET Summary While the US economy has been resilient this year, the lagged effects of tightening are likely still to come. Inflation expectations, credit spreads, corporate credit, employment, and housing aren’t in recession territory. The yield curve,...