SCHX News and Press, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap From 06/30/22

The second quarter of 2022 was another brutal one for fixed-income instruments, with yields rising across the board. The story was even worse for tax-free munis. The Fed’s hiking, coupled with their sharply more hawkish rhetoric, has spooked all bond markets since March and thr...

Commodities (used in the production of goods) are considered a leading indicator of inflation. Recessions are a normal corrective phase of the economic cycle, but politicians, central banks, most financial advisors, and economists never see them coming. Central bank policies can h...

Chair Powell laid out in unequivocal terms last week that the Fed’s primary goal is to reduce inflation pressures, and the policymaker’s commitment is “unconditional.”. The May Leading Economic Indicators Index posted its third consecutive monthly decline. ...

Whether or not we will have a recession is no longer a question. The recession is already here. The only question is, how deep the recession will become. Q1 GDP posted a reading of -1.4%, and the Atlanta Fed GDP Now estimate for Q2 is 0.0%. This means the US economy shrank during the ...

We expect elevated inflation to continue into 2023 due to the lagged impact of food supply disruption and elevated energy costs. Should a recession occur, its scale is likely to be limited by the reduced number of negative feedback loops. Consumers enter this slowdown with a large...

We remain cautious in equities, but in fixed income, investors now have more yield and credit spread to work with. We think that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes for this cycle are becoming increasingly priced into the yield curve. Our fixed income team has stress-tested fo...

Growth is slowing, but it’s slowing to trend at this point. So not to zero, not to negative, but something like the trend that we’ve experienced over the last couple of decades. So, if you’re looking for a great way to play inflation, look to the small cap asset c...

In a more fractured world, we believe governments and corporate decision-makers will increasingly focus on searching for safety and building resilience. Looking forward, rather than reaching for yield, we believe that investors will be reaching for resilience in their portfolio constr...

An update on inflation and the global energy situation. A look at how and why US recession indicators are picking up quickly. Why a recession is unlikely to be a permanent cure for inflation. For further details see: Demand Destruction

The decline in the stock market this year was primarily caused by step 1, the deflation of a number of asset bubbles. Recently, investors and executives have rather suddenly become concerned about a recession. A recession would be step 2, I have listed 17 reasons why it's likely i...