SPHB News and Press, Invesco S&P 500 High Beta From 10/18/22

Summary Is the market bottom in sight? Coming recession. How deep? How long? Amid market chaos, where are the bright spots? The S&P 500 has given back all of the gains we saw in the summer, and more. Is the market bottom in sight? And where are things going from ...

Summary With another higher-than-expected inflation print during the week, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) experienced another surge of volatility during the week that was. But by the end of the week's trading, the index closed at 3,592.76, down 46.90 points or 1.3% from the previous...

Summary Stocks started the week waiting with bated (baited?) breath for the inflation reports of the week. It isn’t surprising that the market is focused firmly on the rearview mirror for clues about the future since Jerome Powell has made it plain that is his plan. Sto...

Summary We’re underweight government bonds because yields have room to move higher, and we don’t think they can be a safe haven when recession comes. Stocks were choppy and short-term U.S. Treasury yields jumped after data showed persistent U.S. core inflation. We th...

Summary The S&P 500 dropped by a whopping 20% from its mid-August top two months ago. However, now that stock prices are much lower and the November Fed move is priced in, stocks may have another significant countertrend rally in the coming weeks. Moreover, big banks are c...

Summary If what you care most about is the long-term real spending power of your wealth, then that should be your benchmark for assessing the risk of different investments. It has long been acknowledged that the volatility of real corporate earnings is much lower than the volatili...

Summary Confirming New Cycle Dynamics, the Truss government’s “mini budget” has unleashed absolute mayhem. The S&P 500 dropped 1.6% (down 24.8% y-t-d), while the Dow recovered 1.2% (down 18.4%). Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates surged 26 bps to...

Summary Janet Yellen raised the specter of buying Treasuries this past week, without it being QE. The comments seemed to be born of some illiquidity issues within the Treasury market. 2022 is a midterm election year. It’s been grim YTD with the S&P 500 down -23.83% whil...

Summary We have been on a market roller-coaster. Why the violent ups and downs? We are still in negative gamma. The options market is controlling the stock market. There is a lack of liquidity in the market, and the positions in the options market are now very short-term. Ther...

Summary The S&P 500 earnings yield is now 6.5%, a 2022 high, surpassing the peak of 6.42% the week of June 17th, 2022, and one of the highest earnings yields seen since January ’19. 2022 has been all about “P/E compression” as the S&P 500 P/E started a...